A debate has arisen in the Forums at MacOSKen.com about the future of the iPod, centered around two stories featured in the April 26, 2006 newscast. One had Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer saying that standalone media players (a thinly veiled reference to the iPod if veiled at all) would eventually give way to convergent devices. The second featured statistics from research firm Strategy Analytics that indicate a sharp increase in the adoption of media playing cell phones in the next five years, thanks in large part to an increase in production and reduction in price of removable media cards. In other words, phones that play music and video will eventually beat out the iPod.

The Apple faithful – God love them – immediately denounced such claims, singing the praises of the Mac maker and the revolution the iPod hath wrought.

Actually... I think Ballmer and Strategy Analytics are right. Kind of.

The iPod as we know it will go away... but that has happened before. I mean, much of the form factor and functionality remain, but the device is wildly different today (video, colors besides white, controls, etc.) than the first gen, not to mention the shuffle and the nano.

There will always be room for standalone players... but their market size will shrink with a couple of factors that leap to mind:

1 - Eventually, the public will wake up to the fact that they have a choice. Right now they think -- for the most part -- that if they want an MP3 player, they have to have an iPod. For many, the cost of an iPod is prohibitive. With the lower cost options and the knock-offs coming out of the far-east, iPod could lose some traction.

2 - Phones will begin to include media playing capability by default. Think what a novelty it was to have a camera phone 2 or 3 years ago. You paid a premium for them if you were so inclined. Today, most of the "free" phone offers from providers include camera phones with a premium paid for higher resolution.

I would look for the same thing to happen with "media device" phones. Carriers will demand lower cost phones with such capabilities from manufacturers. Carriers will then make those phones either cost competitive or free so that they can sell music and video subscription services as “add-ons” to the phone service. This is probably a few years down the road, but look for it.

So do these replace the iPod? Yes and no. The elusive iPod phone would be a serious category killer. Apple is sexy in music and video right now and by most accounts will continue to be for quite some time.

Picture this:

A phone that lets you watch the video you've already collected in iTunes... lets you listen to the music you've already collected in iTunes... lets you take pictures which either sync with iPhoto or that upload automatically to your .mac or carrier provided website... lets you shoot your own vodcast on the fly, add simple titles and post it directly from the phone. And -- of course -- the video would already be ready for the iPod, no matter which video enabled version people happen to use.

Oh... and it lets you make phone calls too.

Now, put all of that in a form factor similar to the one we already know. A click-wheel (touch-screen and stylus perhaps that can flip to reveal a full QWERTY keyboard), iTunes software, rounded edges, basic colors.

The standalone iPod will not die technically. There will be a place for the standalone device for years to come. But... really... wasn't Sony's WalkMan dead in a sense long before Sony stopped cranking them out?

Eventually, the iPod will be killed... and I hope that it's Apple that kills it.